How HOK’s three-horizon scenario planning helps organizations design future-ready buildings by anticipating socio-economic shifts, technology, trends, and long-term workplace needs.
“When it comes to the future, there are three types of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen and those who wonder what happened,” observed John M. Richardson Jr. Organizations today should aspire to be in the second category; regrettably, many will find themselves in the third.
Architects and designers routinely create environments intended to last for decades. Given that the average building life cycle exceeds 70 years, and interior spaces are typically designed for a minimum of a decade, a critical question emerges: Are we designing future-ready structures or merely future relics?
To ensure our spaces are resilient and adaptable, a forward-looking perspective is essential. Our clients are making substantial decisions today that may not fully materialize for three to five years, yet these choices carry ramifications spanning 20 to 30 years — particularly when developing or leasing extensive campus spaces. We must maintain a vigilant focus on the future, but first we must define which future we are referencing.
At HOK, we have adopted a refined scenario-planning framework based on three horizons: the now, the seen horizon and the beyond.
- The now encompasses current realities and projections extending two years ahead. This time frame has gained significant consequence; consider the rapid evolution of technology illustrated by the introduction of ChatGPT in November 2022 and the speed at which today’s landscape is transforming.
- The seen horizon looks further afield, five or more years out.
- The beyond casts its gaze 10 or more years into the future.
Naturally, as the time frame extends, the level of certainty diminishes, control lessens and risk increases. Consequently, our primary focus is directed toward the seen horizon, concentrating our foresight on plausible scenarios five years hence.
Through extensive research, our team has identified five themes that exert considerable influence: Socio-economic, Place, Thriving, People and Technology.
Socio-economic
- Industry sectors
- Culture
- Social initiatives
- Societal shifts
- Cost of living, wage gaps
- Geopolitical factors
Place
- Location/portfolio strategy
- Workplace authenticity
- Urbanism/CBD–SBD
- Aging infrastructure
- Adaptive reuse
- Commute
Thriving
- Well-being and human sustainability
- Health inequities
- Physical, mental, cognitive well-being
- Climate crisis/regeneration
- Circularity
- Resiliency
People
- Labor decline
- Upskilling/retraining
- Generational shifts
- Diversity and inclusion
- Longevity imperative
- Immigration
Technology
- Virtual/asynchronous work
- Cybersecurity
- AI
- Immersive technology
- Automation/robotics
- Smart buildings
Understanding the trajectory of these factors involves pinpointing significant directional movements and the subsequent changes they are poised to trigger. As futurist Amy Webb describes it, true trends are not fleeting fads; they represent enduring patterns and fundamental directions of change. The essence of effective future-casting lies not merely in identifying these developments, but in discerning their intricate interconnections and the cascading ripple effects they will invariably produce.
In collaboration with strategic foresight experts, our team is leading a series of exploratory workshops designed to analyze how various sectors will be impacted in the coming years — and, crucially, how we can strategically advise our clients on planning and design solutions. This process of intentional future-casting provides invaluable insights that empower us to create truly future-ready buildings and spaces. To ignore these horizon scenarios is simply to enable a predictable future problem.
Special Thanks to Our 2026 Trends & Predictions Supporter:
Let’s design spaces that resonate and inspire great work. Explore the Resonant Spaces collection.
